Bulls, Bears, and Ballots: When Looking at Politics and Markets, Think Long Term
With people voting in at least 76 countries in 2024, it looks to be the biggest election year in history, affecting 4.4 billion people, or 60% of the global population.1 Attention will especially be focused on the US, where the vote for president is expected to again be close. The anticipation building up to elections often brings with it questions about how financial markets will respond. But the outcome of an election is only one of many inputs that can impact stocks and bonds.
How Do Presidential Elections Affect the Market?
During a presidential election year, it’s natural for investors to seek a connection between who wins the White House and which way stocks will go. Some may even wonder whether they should get out of the stock market altogether before the ballots are counted. But a look at history may offer some reassurance. Remember, shareholders are investing in companies, not politicians, and stocks haven’t shown much of a party preference.
What About Which Party Controls Congress?
Control of Congress hasn’t been a reliable market gauge either. Nearly a century of US stock market data suggests that making investment decisions based on which party controls the House or the Senate is unlikely to lead to better outcomes.
Should I Brace for Rocky Markets During an Election Month?
You may wonder: What about returns during an election month—when uncertainty may be peaking? Data shows returns in election months have not tended to be that different from returns in any other month. When looking at a broad-market US index going back to 1926, the results don’t reflect any consistent pattern.
What’s an Investor to Do?
While it may be natural to wonder whether you should make an investment decision based on how you think elections might unfold, data suggests such moves are unlikely to result in better returns. On the contrary, these moves may lead to costly mistakes, like getting out of stocks based on a hunch and missing rewarding returns. There is a stronger case for investors to look past elections and maintain a steady approach to markets—in other words, make a long-term plan and stick to it. As Dimensional Founder and Chairman David Booth has said, “Vote with your ballot, not your life savings.” After all, the market isn’t a reflection of who gets elected president but of the efforts of companies to solve problems and provide goods and services. In the long run, innovation succeeds, no matter what politicians do.
David is the Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Rappaport Reiches Capital Management. He acts as personal CFO to entrepreneurs and corporate executives, providing organization and clarity in their finances. Please connect with David below. He loves to talk about investing, financial planning, and Aspiritech, a non-profit hiring individuals on the autism spectrum.