
Recession and Markets
By Marlena Lee, PhD Global Head of Investment Solutions at Dimensional
Against the backdrop of heightened political uncertainty, potential trade wars, and lower consumer sentiment, investors may have concerns about whether the US could tip into a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research identifies recessions using backward-looking data, so we won’t know we’re in recession until after it’s begun.
Luckily for investors, markets are forward-looking and generally react before we see slower economic growth show up in the macroeconomic data. This also means that expected stock returns are positive, even when the economic outlook is weak. This is borne out in the historical data. One dollar invested at the start of a recession saw positive returns after three years in 12 out of 13 past recessions. The average of the three-year returns after the start of a recession was 43.2%, which is nearly identical to the 41.8% average return of all three-year periods from 1947 to 2024.1
INDEX DESCRIPTIONS
Fama/French Total US Market Research Index: July 1926–present: Fama/French Total US Market Research Factor + One-Month US Treasury Bills. Source: Ken French website.Results shown during periods prior to each index’s inception date do not represent actual returns of the respective index. Other periods selected may have different results, including losses. Backtested index performance is hypothetical and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the index been calculated over the relevant time periods. Backtested performance results assume the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Profitability is measured as operating income before depreciation and amortization minus interest expense scaled by book. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
David is the Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Rappaport Reiches Capital Management. He acts as personal CFO to entrepreneurs and corporate executives, providing organization and clarity in their finances. Please connect with David below. He loves to talk about investing, financial planning, and Aspiritech, a non-profit hiring individuals on the autism spectrum.